I expect they will increase both in terms of frequency and of sophistication. I see the interconnectedness of IT as the number one challenge individuals, companies, and governments will face in the next decade. I predict the threats will drive completely new business models. I liken the evolution of cyberspace in the next ten years to the ways the interstate systems completely changed the way countries do business; it will bring opportunities and changes to the way we live, work, and play. The threats that will result from the expansion of IT in our lives will also change. Much like security, safety, governance and business opportunities that had to change along with the exponential growth of our infrastructure, threats and will opportunities evolve with the expansion of our cyber ecosystem.
The threats we face today are beyond the basement hacker; they are persistent. With regard to APT (Advanced Persistent Threat), I recommend that we give special consideration to the “P.” Persistence of our adversaries may mean different things to different people, but the adversary will not give up. Right now we are trying to change the equation and raise the adversary’s “cost of doing business” by exploring new approaches to engaging them.